Research
4 questions for ’24
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 11 January 2023
5 min read
Last year saw inflation moderate and economic conditions remain resilient. Hopes for a ‘soft landing’ are high, yet so too is uncertainty around the outlook for the economy.
Given a lack of clarity around the outlook, in this piece, I try to shed some light on four of the key questions for 2024.
- What has driven the Australian economy’s rebalancing and what could in 2024?
- What would it take for inflation to get back to the middle of the RBA’s inflation target band by the end of 2025?
- What is the likelihood of a US recession this year?
- What are the main economic and market risks (upside and downside) for 2024?
From boom to swoon – What the next phase of Australia’s economic cycle might look like
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist and Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 19 July 2023
5 min read
The sharp rise in interest rates in Australia has increased risks to economic growth. In this article, QTC economists Michael Anthonisz and Trent Saunders consider what the next phase of the economic cycle might look like for Australia, including what the probability of a recession may be and what scenarios might lead to this sort of outcome.
Financial Conditions in Australia
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 30 March 2023
5 min read
Rate hikes from the RBA are raising the cost of capital in the Australian economy, but there are a broader range of factors which determine the degree to which developments in the financial sector influence the real economy beyond just changes in monetary policy. QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz breaks these down in this note on financial conditions in Australia.
Three questions for ’23
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 9 December 2022
10 min read
The last few years have seen incredible volatility and uncertainty. This is yet to fully subside and key questions remain around the economic outlook. In this note, QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz seeks to answer three of the biggest questions for 2023.
Where are we in the economic cycle?
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 22 November 2022
10 min read
Economic momentum is fading, a more pronounced slowdown seems inevitable, and a recession is very much possible. Yet households are still spending and labour markets are as tight as they’ve been in half a century. So where exactly are we in the economic cycle and where might we be headed? In this note, QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz uses several approaches to gauge where we are in the global and domestic economic cycles. He finds that most indicators point to economies still being in the expansion stage, but equally, many suggest that this could soon change.
What effect will higher interest rates have on the Australian economy?
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 1 August 2022
9 min read
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase the cash rate sharply over the coming year in response to the high outlook for inflation. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders looks at how cash rate changes have affected different parts of the economy in the past, as well as whether these responses might be different in the current cycle.
Assessing US recession risks
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 30 May 2022
5 min read
In this article, QTC Chief Economist estimates the probability of a future recession using the 2‑year/10-year yield curve as well as a range of alternate measures. He finds that the 2-year/10-year yield curve currently overstates the odds of a US recession over the next 12 months. Though, given the scale of the inflation challenge in the US and the relative lack of ‘soft landings’ in these contexts historically, it would not be surprising to see aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve lead to a recession over a longer time horizon.
The demand-supply imbalance in the Australian economy
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 6 April 2022
9 min read
COVID-19 was one of the biggest health and economic emergencies of the last century. One of its legacies is how profoundly it has affected the demand for and supply of goods and services. In this piece, QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz constructs estimates of demand and supply conditions in Australia. He examines how these have evolved over time and assesses what the implications for inflation might be of the imbalance between the demand and supply.
Daily nowcasting of global and Australian GDP growth
Michael Anthonisz, QTC Chief Economist
Published: 26 May 2021
3 min read
Over a year has passed since Australia saw the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic recession, yet economic conditions are still evolving quickly. In this article QTC’s Chief Economist Michael Anthonisz uses ‘nowcasting’ methods to gauge how global and Australian economic output is changing in real-time. These nowcasts show that both global and Australian GDP growth remains firm so far in 2021.
Re-assessing Australia’s economic recovery
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 29 April 2021
6 min read
Australia’s economic recovery has been swift, with leading indicators suggesting that this rapid rate of improvement could continue in the coming months. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders uses three scenarios to project what this unexpected strength could mean for the economic outlook and the RBA’s cash rate decisions through to 2030.
2030 Vision: Outlook for the economy and interest rates
Trent Saunders, QTC Principal Economist
Published: 18 February 2021
6 min read
In a world of uncertainty, it has proven difficult to see beyond short-term time horizons. In this article, QTC’s Principal Economist Trent Saunders explores Australia’s long-term path to economic recovery and alternate perspectives on how the economy and interest rates could evolve over the course of this decade. Using three scenarios and projections he takes a look at how the cash rate could move over the decade to 2030.